RESOURCE · AI-NATIVE BIOTECH · Recursion deep dive, parts 1 and 2 · October 2026 · work in progress
Recursion: what it said it would do, and what it says now
Recursion is one of the best-known AI-first drug discovery companies, and it has published more dated plans than most. This page sets a few of those plans, in its own words, beside what its later filings, calls and press coverage say.
Plans and what came after
| Program | What it planned | What a later source says | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four lead programs | “Our four lead programs are expected to enroll patients in Phase 2 clinical trials within the next four to five quarters while preclinical programs are progressing.” | “REC-2282 for the treatment of neurofibromatosis type 2, or NF2—expected Phase 2/3 initiation in Q2 2022.” and “REC-4881 for the treatment of familial adenomatous polyposis, or FAP—expected Phase 2 initiation in Q3 2022.” | Dated, checkable targets. The next filing for REC-4881 describes a different study (below). |
| REC-4881 (FAP) | “REC-4881 for the potential treatment of AXIN1 or APC mutant cancers — a Phase 1b/2 study in select tumor types is expected to initiate in early 2024.” | “Following positive clinical data from TUPELO shared in 2025, in the first half of 2026 we expect to engage with the FDA to define a registration path” | Same drug, new indication and timing by 2023; the company reports positive data in 2025 and a regulatory step planned for first half of 2026. Only the stated plan is compared here, not trial results. |
| REC-2282 (NF2) | “REC-2282 for the treatment of neurofibromatosis type 2, or NF2—expected Phase 2/3 initiation in Q2 2022.” | “the totality of data on the '2282 and '994 programs support discontinuing the studies outright” (May 2025, as reported by Fierce) | Stopped. |
| REC-3964 (C. difficile) | “We made progress in IND-enabling studies for REC-3964 and plan to initiate a Phase 1 study in the second half of 2022.” | “weighing whether to pursue out-licensing opportunities” (May 2025, as reported by Fierce) | Phase 1 plan in 2022 became a Phase 2 plan for 2024 in the FY2023 10-K, then a deprioritization. |
| REC-4539 (LSD1i) | “the planned REC-4539 Phase 1 study that originated at Exscientia and is commencing in the first half of 2025.” | “We now expect to initiate the Phase 1 trial (ENLYGHT) in the first half of 2026” | A twelve-month slip, stated by the company itself; Fierce reported work on this program paused in May 2025. |
| Size of the pipeline | “I think our pipeline will have 100 programs in it in the not-too-distant future.” (CEO, Sept 2024) GEN interview, Sept 2024 | “Together, we may initiate up to 40 small molecule programs over a decade or longer.” | These count different things (programs in the pipeline versus programs that may be initiated over a decade), so the two numbers are not directly comparable. |
A sentence that stops appearing
From the FY2021 through FY2024 annual reports, Recursion’s business section carries the same promise, word for word:
“Over time, and as our OS improves, we expect that moving failure earlier in the pipeline will result in an overall lower cost of drug development.”
It appears in the FY2021, FY2022, FY2023 and FY2024 reports. I did not find that sentence, or two shorter phrases from it, in the FY2025 report. A missing sentence is not a retraction, and I only searched for those phrases, so a reworded version could exist.
From “100 programs” to “promise to proof”
The CEO in 2024: “I think our pipeline will have 100 programs in it in the not-too-distant future.” He also gave a date to be judged by: “if we had 100 programs in our pipeline in 2027, let's say, and started reading out multiple Phase II programs that were efficacious, I think I would be really happy, even if a little bit late on that promise.” Separately, Fierce (May 2026) wrote that Gibson had built a reputation by promising 100 new medicines in 10 years, and that Gibson, in a blog post last month, called this a “maximalist bet” that was wrong “not in direction, but in timeline.” That is a different promise from the 100-programs figure above. The current CEO, speaking in December 2025: “Gone are the days where an interesting model is sufficient. We need models that improve the medicines that we're making.” In May 2026: “Ideas from biology are great, but if you can't make molecules, then where are my products?” On the Q2 2026 earnings call (transcript): “the real advantage isn't the model itself. It's our operating system. It's our operating model.”
My reading. The plan changed from more programs, sooner, toward fewer programs shown to work, and the claimed advantage moved from the size of the pipeline to the operating process around the models. The company says this itself; it is not an outside criticism. What the page cannot yet say is whether the new, smaller promises are being kept: for example, the Q2 2026 call says “we just received IND clearance for REC-7735, positioning it to enter the clinic later this year.” and that is checkable by the end of 2026.
Part 2: the 18-month catalyst list
The FY2024 annual report (February 2025) listed near-term milestones under one heading: “Recursion is poised for a catalyst-rich period, with multiple programs reaching critical milestones over the next 18 months.” Here is that list next to what the FY2025 annual report (February 2026) says about each item.
| Item | Planned (FY2024 report) | Reported (FY2025 report) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| REC-3565 (MALT-1i) | “REC-3565 (MALT-1i) will enter Phase 1 for B-cell malignancies, with the first patient expected to be dosed in the first half of 2025.” | “A multicenter, open-label, dose escalation Phase 1 study (EXCELERIZE) is ongoing, with the first patient dosed in April 2025.” | On plan First patient dosed within the stated half-year. |
| REC-4881 (FAP) | “REC-4881 (MEK1/2i) will report Phase 1b/2 safety and early efficacy data for FAP during the same period.” | “In May 2025, preliminary Phase 1b/2 data was shared at Digestive Disease Week 2025 for 6 patients following 13 weeks of treatment with REC-4881” | On plan Preliminary data shared in May 2025 for 6 patients; a larger set followed in December 2025. |
| REC-617 (CDK7i), data | “Additional Phase 1 data from the ELUCIDATE trial for REC-617 (CDK7i) in advanced solid tumors is expected in the second half of 2025.” | “In November 2025, updated results from a monotherapy cohort of 29 heavily pre-treated patients who received 6 dose levels of REC-617 (QD and BID) were reported.” | On plan Updated results reported November 2025. |
| REC-617 (CDK7i), combinations | “REC-617 (CDK7i) will initiate combination studies in advanced solid tumors in the first half of 2025.” | “in 2025 the ELUCIDATE study was expanded into platinum-resistant ovarian cancer (PROC), with a Phase 2 dose expansion monotherapy cohort ongoing and a Phase 1 dose escalation combination arm also initiated.” | Done in 2025 The report gives the year, not the half-year. |
| REC-2282 (NF2) | “REC-2282 (HDACi) for NF2-related meningioma will undergo PFS6 futility analysis and REC-4539 (LSD-1i) will begin Phase 1 dose escalation in SCLC during the same period.” | “the clinical programs REC-2282 for NF2, REC-994 for CCM, and REC-3964 for C. difficile were discontinued and/or partnering opportunities are being pursued.” | Stopped No futility result is reported; the program was discontinued in the May 2025 reprioritization. |
| REC-4539 (SCLC) | “REC-2282 (HDACi) for NF2-related meningioma will undergo PFS6 futility analysis and REC-4539 (LSD-1i) will begin Phase 1 dose escalation in SCLC during the same period.” | “We now expect to initiate the Phase 1 trial (ENLYGHT) in the first half of 2026” | Moved later A year later than the 2025 plan. |
My reading. Of the six items, three happened as planned, one happened in 2025 without a stated half-year, one was stopped, and one moved a year. That is my count of the company’s own list, not a measure of the science. Two of the on-plan items, the first patient dosed and an early data update, are the kinds of milestones a company controls more than it controls results; the stopped and moved items were decided in the May 2025 reprioritization. The “up to 10 additional clinical program milestones” figure in the same report is a total this table does not reproduce: the report names six in the list above, and I did not try to find the other four. The 18 months run to about August 2026, and the Q2 2026 call is the nearest later checkpoint.
What is still open
- The Q2 2026 call states cash “which we believe provides us with an operating runway through early 2028.” A later filing can confirm or revise that.
- Program-level results (REC-994, REC-4881 and others) are not assessed here.
- The remaining four of the “up to 10” milestones, and a count against the Q2 2026 call.
Sources: SEC filings linked in the table (S-1, annual reports FY2021 through FY2025); Recursion Q2 2026 earnings call transcript; Fierce Biotech, May 2025 and May 2026; a GEN interview with the CEO (September 2024) and a GEN interview with the current CEO (December 2025). The related table of who owns the lab is at the lab-ownership resource.